Fixtures turn, and the managers who move first get the run and the price rise. Over the next five gameweeks the swing is unusually sharp: one club has a run most teams would take all season, and two of the most-owned sides in the game have among the hardest.
Here is every club ranked on GW6 to GW10 difficulty, who to buy from the sides whose fixtures open up, and who to move on before theirs close.
The GW6–GW10 Fixture Swing, Every Club Ranked
Averaged across all five gameweeks using FPL's own per-fixture difficulty — lower is easier:
| Club | Avg difficulty | GW6–GW10 |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 2.40 | IPS (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (A) · NEW (H) |
| Coventry | 2.80 | NEW (H) · TOT (A) · FUL (H) · SUN (H) · EVE (A) |
| Newcastle | 2.80 | COV (A) · AVL (H) · CRY (A) · EVE (H) · FUL (A) |
| Arsenal | 3.00 | LEE (H) · NFO (A) · EVE (H) · LIV (A) · HUL (H) |
| Chelsea | 3.00 | BOU (H) · EVE (A) · TOT (H) · MUN (H) · SUN (A) |
| Man City | 3.00 | LIV (A) · IPS (H) · AVL (A) · BHA (H) · NFO (A) |
| Man Utd | 3.00 | TOT (H) · LEE (A) · BOU (H) · CHE (A) · AVL (H) |
| Spurs | 3.00 | MUN (A) · COV (H) · CHE (A) · CRY (H) · LEE (A) |
| Sunderland | 3.00 | BHA (H) · BOU (A) · LEE (H) · COV (A) · CHE (H) |
| Ipswich | 3.00 | FUL (H) · MCI (A) · NFO (H) · HUL (A) · BOU (H) |
| Aston Villa | 3.20 | BRE (H) · NEW (A) · MCI (H) · FUL (H) · MUN (A) |
| Bournemouth | 3.20 | CHE (A) · SUN (H) · MUN (A) · LEE (H) · IPS (A) |
| Brentford | 3.20 | AVL (A) · LIV (H) · HUL (A) · NFO (H) · BHA (A) |
| Everton | 3.20 | HUL (A) · CHE (H) · ARS (A) · NEW (A) · COV (H) |
| Hull City | 3.20 | EVE (H) · FUL (A) · BRE (H) · IPS (H) · ARS (A) |
| Nott'm Forest | 3.20 | CRY (A) · ARS (H) · IPS (A) · BRE (A) · MCI (H) |
| Brighton | 3.40 | SUN (A) · CRY (H) · LIV (A) · MCI (A) · BRE (H) |
| Crystal Palace | 3.40 | NFO (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H) · TOT (A) · LIV (H) |
| Leeds | 3.40 | ARS (A) · MUN (H) · SUN (A) · BOU (A) · TOT (H) |
| Liverpool | 3.40 | MCI (H) · BRE (A) · BHA (H) · ARS (H) · CRY (A) |
The spread from 2.40 to 3.40 is wide enough to matter. Fulham's run is the clear outlier — three of their five are rated 2, and they have no fixture harder than a 3 in the entire window.
At the other end, Liverpool have the joint-hardest run in the league, which is awkward given how many squads are built around them. More on that below.
Fulham: The Easiest Run in the League
Ipswich away, Hull at home, Coventry away, Villa away, Newcastle at home. No fixture above a 3, and the first three are as soft as the calendar gets.
The problem — and the opportunity — is that almost nobody owns a Fulham asset:
| Player | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo | FWD | £6.0m | 16.7 | 4.4% |
| Iwobi | MID | £5.4m | 15.7 | 0.7% |
| King | MID | £5.6m | 15.2 | 3.1% |
| Leno | GKP | £4.5m | 13.9 | 3.5% |
| Bassey | DEF | £4.5m | 13.7 | 0.8% |
Leno at £4.5m is the cleanest way in. A goalkeeper behind the kindest run in the league at the price of a bench filler is the kind of move that quietly funds a premium elsewhere.
Newcastle: Good Fixtures and Defensive Points
Coventry away, Villa home, Palace away, Everton home, Fulham away — and a defence that generates defensive contribution points on top of clean sheet chances.
| Player | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | DefCon/90 | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botman | DEF | £5.0m | 18.4 | 11.8 | 0.7% |
| Barnes | MID | £6.1m | 16.8 | 6.6 | 6.1% |
| Hall | DEF | £5.3m | 16.2 | 9.2 | 17.9% |
| Thiaw | DEF | £5.0m | 15.6 | 9.0 | 2.2% |
Botman is the standout pick in this entire article. He projects 18.4 over four gameweeks — ninth-highest in the game — from a £5.0m defensive slot, clears his DefCon threshold at 11.8 per 90, and is owned by 0.7% of managers. Good fixtures, a points floor and near-zero ownership is as close as FPL gets to a free roll.
Coventry: Cheap Defence, Kind Run
Newcastle at home is the only awkward fixture in Coventry's five, and the defenders are priced at the floor:
| Player | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | DefCon/90 | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas | DEF | £4.0m | 16.1 | 10.7 | 8.6% |
| Pinnock | DEF | £4.5m | 15.4 | 14.0 | 0.1% |
| Dasilva | DEF | £4.0m | 11.5 | 4.7 | 0.8% |
Thomas at £4.0m projecting 16.1 is the cheapest meaningful asset in the game right now. Pinnock clears his DefCon line by four actions a game and is owned by one manager in a thousand.
The Highest Projections in the Game
Fixtures are one input. These are the players with the strongest four-gameweek outlook regardless of run — fit, starting, 180+ minutes:
| Player | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | FWD | £15.6m | 26.5 | 73.9% |
| B. Fernandes | MID | £11.9m | 22.0 | 38.3% |
| Saka | MID | £9.6m | 21.3 | 14.5% |
| Gabriel | DEF | £8.0m | 20.4 | 22.7% |
| Mbeumo | MID | £7.9m | 19.1 | 20.4% |
| Gibbs-White | MID | £8.0m | 18.7 | 15.7% |
| Botman | DEF | £5.0m | 18.4 | 0.7% |
| Rogers | MID | £7.8m | 18.4 | 41.0% |
Saka at 14.5% ownership is the one that stands out among the premiums — third-highest projection in the game and owned by fewer than one manager in six.
Differentials Under 10% Ownership
Strong projections, low ownership — the picks that gain rank rather than protect it:
| Player | Team | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botman | Newcastle | DEF | £5.0m | 18.4 | 0.7% |
| Thiago | Brentford | FWD | £7.8m | 18.7 | 9.2% |
| E. Le Fée | Sunderland | MID | £5.7m | 18.5 | 3.3% |
| Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | MID | £6.6m | 17.1 | 5.8% |
| Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | £6.1m | 16.8 | 6.9% |
| Barnes | Newcastle | MID | £6.1m | 16.8 | 6.1% |
| Xhaka | Sunderland | MID | £5.5m | 16.7 | 3.6% |
| Stach | Leeds | MID | £6.0m | 16.4 | 2.5% |
Whether a differential is brave or reckless depends on your rank rather than the player — our template versus differentials framework covers which mode you should be in, and how to find them covers the screening method behind this list.
Budget Picks Under £5.5m
Where the fifth defender and the bench actually earn their place:
| Player | Team | Pos | Price | 4GW proj | DefCon/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botman | Newcastle | DEF | £5.0m | 18.4 | 11.8 |
| Xhaka | Sunderland | MID | £5.5m | 16.7 | 10.8 |
| Tzolakis | Hull City | GKP | £4.7m | 16.3 | — |
| Hall | Newcastle | DEF | £5.3m | 16.2 | 9.2 |
| Thomas | Coventry | DEF | £4.0m | 16.1 | 10.7 |
| Muharemović | Leeds | DEF | £5.0m | 16.0 | 11.6 |
| Mukiele | Sunderland | DEF | £5.4m | 15.9 | 12.0 |
Six of those seven are defenders or a goalkeeper, which is not a coincidence — defensive contributions have made the cheap defensive slots genuinely productive. The DefCon Tracker shows which of your own defenders are actually clearing the line. Our formation guide covers what that does to your starting shape, and the budget enablers guide covers which cheap players genuinely start.
Who to Sell Before the Swing
Four clubs have the hardest runs — Liverpool, Leeds, Crystal Palace and Brighton, all averaging 3.40. These are the widely-owned players caught in them:
| Player | Team | Owned | 4GW proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai | Liverpool | 32.3% | 16.7 |
| Groß | Brighton | 30.3% | 15.7 |
| De Cuyper | Brighton | 28.4% | 12.2 |
| Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | 24.6% | 14.9 |
| Virgil | Liverpool | 16.2% | 16.1 |
Be careful with this list rather than acting on it wholesale. Groß is the highest-scoring midfielder in the game on 47 points — a hard run is not a reason to sell a player that good. De Cuyper is the clearer case: 28.4% owned, projecting only 12.2, and Brighton's run includes Liverpool and Man City away.
If you are looking at four or more of these and thinking about clearing them all, that is a wildcard question rather than a transfer question.
The Oracle Takeaway
Fulham have the kindest run in the league from GW6 to GW10 and almost nobody owns a Fulham player — Leno at £4.5m is the cheapest way in. Newcastle and Coventry follow, and both offer defenders at £4.0m–£5.3m who clear their DefCon thresholds.
If you take one name from this page, make it Botman: ninth-highest four-gameweek projection in the entire game, from a £5.0m slot, at 0.7% ownership, behind a good run.
On the other side, Liverpool and Brighton assets are heading into the hardest fixtures in the league while sitting in a third of all squads. That is the swing worth being ahead of.
Check any club's run yourself with Oracle's fixture tool, or scan your own squad to see which of your players are heading into trouble, or check which of your defenders clear their DefCon line. All free, no account needed.
Who are you bringing in for this run — and is anyone brave enough for Botman? 👇